{"id":1282,"date":"2025-04-19T08:06:38","date_gmt":"2025-04-19T12:06:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ganhosegastos.ca\/?p=1282"},"modified":"2025-04-26T15:45:44","modified_gmt":"2025-04-26T19:45:44","slug":"the-bank-of-canada-paused-rates-heres-what-that-could-mean-for-mortgage-rates-and-housing-affordability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ganhosegastos.ca\/en\/the-bank-of-canada-paused-rates-heres-what-that-could-mean-for-mortgage-rates-and-housing-affordability\/","title":{"rendered":"The Bank of Canada Paused Rates \u2014 Here\u2019s What That Could Mean for Mortgage Rates and Housing Affordability"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-end=\"757\" data-start=\"509\" style=\"\">The <strong data-end=\"537\" data-start=\"513\">Bank of Canada (BoC)<\/strong> held its key interest rate steady at <strong data-end=\"584\" data-start=\"575\">2.75%<\/strong> this week. While this may seem like a routine move, it offers important signals about where the economy, <strong data-end=\"708\" data-start=\"690\">mortgage rates<\/strong>, and <strong data-end=\"739\" data-start=\"714\">housing affordability<\/strong> might be heading.<\/p>\n<p data-end=\"788\" data-start=\"759\" style=\"\">Here\u2019s what you need to know.<\/p>\n<h2 data-end=\"850\" data-start=\"795\" style=\"font-size: 28px !important;\">1. Seven Rate Cuts Since 2024 \u2014 But That May Be Over<\/h2>\n<p data-end=\"1061\" data-start=\"852\" style=\"\">Since April 2024, the Bank of Canada has cut its policy rate <strong data-end=\"928\" data-start=\"913\">seven times<\/strong>, bringing it down from 5.00% to 2.75%. These cuts helped ease borrowing costs and provided some relief to homeowners and homebuyers.<\/p>\n<p data-end=\"1202\" data-start=\"1063\" style=\"\">However, this week\u2019s pause suggests that further rate cuts may be off the table for now \u2014 especially as other risks begin to take priority.<\/p>\n<h2 data-end=\"1256\" data-start=\"1209\" style=\"\">2. Housing Got Less Attention in This Report<\/h2>\n<p data-end=\"1430\" data-start=\"1258\" style=\"\">In previous Monetary Policy Reports, <strong data-end=\"1306\" data-start=\"1295\">housing<\/strong> was a frequent topic \u2014 mentioned more than 13 times on average. In the most recent report, it was only mentioned <strong data-end=\"1429\" data-start=\"1420\">twice<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-end=\"1696\" data-start=\"1432\" style=\"\">This doesn\u2019t mean <strong data-end=\"1475\" data-start=\"1450\">housing affordability<\/strong> is no longer a concern. It simply shows that the Bank is shifting its attention toward other risks that could have a more immediate impact on Canada\u2019s economic outlook \u2014 most notably, global trade tensions and inflation.<span style=\"font-size: 28px !important;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 data-end=\"1761\" data-start=\"1703\" style=\"\"><span style=\"font-size: 28px !important;\">3. Trade Risks Could Slow Down Key Areas of the Economy<\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-end=\"1862\" data-start=\"1763\" style=\"\">If current tariff threats escalate, several major Canadian industries could be hit hard, including:<\/p>\n<ul data-end=\"1951\" data-start=\"1864\">\n<li data-end=\"1886\" data-start=\"1864\">Auto manufacturing<\/li>\n<li data-end=\"1907\" data-start=\"1887\">Steel and lumber<\/li>\n<li data-end=\"1926\" data-start=\"1908\">Export sectors<\/li>\n<li data-end=\"1951\" data-start=\"1927\">Trucking and logistics<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-end=\"2180\" data-start=\"1953\" style=\"\">A slowdown in these areas would reduce overall economic activity. And if inflation rises at the same time, the Bank of Canada may be unable to continue cutting rates \u2014 making <strong data-end=\"2153\" data-start=\"2128\">housing affordability<\/strong> an even greater challenge.<\/p>\n<p data-end=\"2234\" data-start=\"2182\" style=\"\">Earlier this year, <strong data-end=\"2226\" data-start=\"2201\">Governor Tiff Macklem<\/strong> warned:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Tiff Macklem<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u200b-Governor&#8211;Bank of Canada-<\/p>\n<p><em><span style=\"font-size: 18px !important; --tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5)  !important;\">A new crisis is on the horizon. If US tariffs play out as threatened, the economic impact would be severe.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"2472\" data-start=\"2350\" style=\"\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)       !important; color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5)      !important;\">This is part of why the Bank is treading cautiously, even as other pressures \u2014 like high housing costs \u2014 continue to grow.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"2472\" data-start=\"2350\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5)  !important;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 data-end=\"2517\" data-start=\"2479\" style=\"\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\">4. The BoC Warned About Stagflation<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-end=\"2593\" data-start=\"2519\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><strong data-end=\"2534\" data-start=\"2519\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px !important;\">Stagflation<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 18px !important;\"> is when inflation stays high while the economy slows down.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"2856\" data-start=\"2595\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px !important;\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\">In a typical slowdown, the Bank of Canada would lower interest rates to stimulate growth. But if inflation remains elevated, lowering rates could make the problem worse. On the other hand, raising rates to fight inflation could further damage a slowing economy.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"2960\" data-start=\"2858\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\">It\u2019s a lose-lose situation \u2014 and the Bank is now openly acknowledging that stagflation is a real risk.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"2960\" data-start=\"2858\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 data-end=\"3014\" data-start=\"2967\" style=\"\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\">5. Housing Affordability Remains a Challenge<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-end=\"3277\" data-start=\"3016\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\">Even with rate cuts over the past year, <strong data-end=\"3081\" data-start=\"3056\">housing affordability<\/strong> has not improved significantly for most Canadians. In some regions, home prices have come down modestly \u2014 especially in the condo market. But overall, homeownership remains out of reach for many.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"3439\" data-start=\"3279\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px !important;\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\">Wages have not kept up with the rising cost of housing, and although <strong data-end=\"3366\" data-start=\"3348\">mortgage rates<\/strong> have declined slightly, they are still high compared to the last decade.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"3555\" data-start=\"3441\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)    !important; color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\">The chart below illustrates the growing disconnect between real house prices and real disposable income in Canada:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Line chart showing the gap between house prices and disposable income in Canada from 1975 to 2021, highlighting housing affordability challenges.\" data-id=\"1329\" width=\"564\" data-init-width=\"564\" height=\"423\" data-init-height=\"423\" title=\"housing-affordability-in-canada_ftr-image\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/ganhosegastos.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/housing-affordability-in-canada_ftr-image.webp\" data-width=\"564\" data-height=\"423\" style=\"aspect-ratio: auto 564 \/ 423;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"3733\" data-start=\"3557\" style=\"\"><em><strong data-end=\"3678\" data-start=\"3668\">Source<\/strong>: Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy via National Post<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"3814\" data-start=\"3735\" style=\"\"><em>Chart: Real House Prices vs. Real Disposable Income in Canada (Q1 1975 = 100)<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"4063\" data-start=\"3816\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)    !important; color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\">As shown above, disposable income (black line) has risen gradually since the mid-1970s \u2014 but real house prices (red line) have surged, especially after 2000. By 2021, home prices had increased more than fourfold, while income had not even doubled.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"4217\" data-start=\"4065\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\">This gap is central to the housing affordability crisis. Even with moderate rate relief, many Canadians still cannot afford to enter the housing market.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"4217\" data-start=\"4065\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\"><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 data-end=\"4262\" data-start=\"4224\" style=\"\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\">6. Uncertainty Is the Central Theme<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-end=\"4367\" data-start=\"4264\" style=\"\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\">The Bank of Canada repeated one word several times during its latest press conference: <strong data-end=\"4366\" data-start=\"4351\">uncertainty<\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\"><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"4574\" data-start=\"4369\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px !important;\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\">Between trade tensions, unpredictable inflation trends, and an unclear future for rate policy, there\u2019s no guaranteed direction. That makes planning harder \u2014 whether you\u2019re looking to buy, renew, or invest.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"4603\" data-start=\"4576\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)    !important; color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\">As Governor Macklem put it:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Tiff Macklem<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center; font-size: 10px !important;\">-Governor&#8211;Bank of Canada-<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\"><span style=\"\"><span style=\"\"><em data-end=\"4707\" data-start=\"4607\">I think giving Canadians a false sense of precision would not be doing Canadians a good service.<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"4847\" data-start=\"4709\"><span><span><span>This reflects the tone of the Bank\u2019s current messaging: they\u2019re cautious, non-committal, and highly aware of the complex challenges ahead.<\/span><\/span><\/span><span><span><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span><span><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 data-end=\"4873\" data-start=\"4854\" style=\"\"><span><span><span>Why This Matters<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-end=\"5146\" data-start=\"4875\"><span><span><span>We don\u2019t yet know where interest rates or home prices are going. But understanding how decisions from the <strong data-end=\"4999\" data-start=\"4981\">Bank of Canada<\/strong> affect <strong data-end=\"5025\" data-start=\"5007\">mortgage rates<\/strong> and <strong data-end=\"5055\" data-start=\"5030\">housing affordability<\/strong> helps Canadians make better sense of what\u2019s happening now \u2014 and what could be coming next.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-end=\"5273\" data-start=\"5148\"><span>The BoC isn\u2019t making promises. In fact, it\u2019s being very careful not to. That alone says a lot about the uncertainty we\u2019re in.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its key interest rate steady at 2.75% this week. While this may seem like a routine move, it offers important signals about where the economy, mortgage rates, and housing affordability might be heading. Here\u2019s what you need to know. 1. Seven Rate Cuts Since 2024 \u2014 But That May [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1310,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","tve_updated_post":"<div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_contentbox_shortcode thrv-content-box tve-elem-default-pad\" data-css=\"tve-u-1964de63d61\" style=\"\"><div class=\"tve-content-box-background\"><\/div><div class=\"tve-cb\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element\"><p data-end=\"757\" data-start=\"509\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965105a53a\">The <strong data-end=\"537\" data-start=\"513\">Bank of Canada (BoC)<\/strong> held its key interest rate steady at <strong data-end=\"584\" data-start=\"575\">2.75%<\/strong> this week. While this may seem like a routine move, it offers important signals about where the economy, <strong data-end=\"708\" data-start=\"690\">mortgage rates<\/strong>, and <strong data-end=\"739\" data-start=\"714\">housing affordability<\/strong> might be heading.<\/p><p data-css=\"tve-u-1965105a540\" data-end=\"788\" data-start=\"759\" style=\"\">Here\u2019s what you need to know.<br><br><\/p><h2 data-end=\"850\" data-start=\"795\" style=\"font-size: 28px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965105a545\" class=\"\">1. Seven Rate Cuts Since 2024 \u2014 But That May Be Over<\/h2><p data-end=\"1061\" data-start=\"852\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965105a54a\">Since April 2024, the Bank of Canada has cut its policy rate <strong data-end=\"928\" data-start=\"913\">seven times<\/strong>, bringing it down from 5.00% to 2.75%. These cuts helped ease borrowing costs and provided some relief to homeowners and homebuyers.<\/p><p data-css=\"tve-u-1965105a54e\" data-end=\"1202\" data-start=\"1063\" style=\"\">However, this week\u2019s pause suggests that further rate cuts may be off the table for now \u2014 especially as other risks begin to take priority.<br><br><\/p><h2 data-end=\"1256\" data-start=\"1209\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965105a553\" class=\"\">2. Housing Got Less Attention in This Report<\/h2><p data-end=\"1430\" data-start=\"1258\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965105a558\">In previous Monetary Policy Reports, <strong data-end=\"1306\" data-start=\"1295\">housing<\/strong> was a frequent topic \u2014 mentioned more than 13 times on average. In the most recent report, it was only mentioned <strong data-end=\"1429\" data-start=\"1420\">twice<\/strong>.<\/p><p data-css=\"tve-u-1965105a55d\" data-end=\"1696\" data-start=\"1432\" style=\"\">This doesn\u2019t mean <strong data-end=\"1475\" data-start=\"1450\">housing affordability<\/strong> is no longer a concern. It simply shows that the Bank is shifting its attention toward other risks that could have a more immediate impact on Canada\u2019s economic outlook \u2014 most notably, global trade tensions and inflation.<br><span style=\"font-size: 28px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530084fc\"><br><\/span><\/p><h2 data-end=\"1761\" data-start=\"1703\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965105a560\" class=\"\"><span style=\"font-size: 28px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530084fe\">3. Trade Risks Could Slow Down Key Areas of the Economy<\/span><\/h2><p data-end=\"1862\" data-start=\"1763\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965105a565\">If current tariff threats escalate, several major Canadian industries could be hit hard, including:<\/p><ul data-end=\"1951\" data-start=\"1864\" class=\"\"><li data-end=\"1886\" data-start=\"1864\">Auto manufacturing<\/li><li data-end=\"1907\" data-start=\"1887\">Steel and lumber<\/li><li data-end=\"1926\" data-start=\"1908\">Export sectors<\/li><li data-end=\"1951\" data-start=\"1927\">Trucking and logistics<\/li><\/ul><p data-end=\"2180\" data-start=\"1953\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965105a57d\">A slowdown in these areas would reduce overall economic activity. And if inflation rises at the same time, the Bank of Canada may be unable to continue cutting rates \u2014 making <strong data-end=\"2153\" data-start=\"2128\">housing affordability<\/strong> an even greater challenge.<\/p><p data-css=\"tve-u-1965105a582\" data-end=\"2234\" data-start=\"2182\" style=\"\">Earlier this year, <strong data-end=\"2226\" data-start=\"2201\">Governor Tiff Macklem<\/strong> warned:<br><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv-page-section thrv-lp-block\" data-inherit-lp-settings=\"1\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e402\" tcb-template-name=\"Quote 08\" tcb-template-id=\"5efc64cc62b8a83127787550\" data-keep-css_id=\"1\" data-form-settings=\"__TCB_FORM__{&quot;form_identifier&quot;:&quot;the-bank-of-canada-paused-rates-heres-what-that-could-mean-for-mortgage-rates-and-housing-affordability-form-7rl9te&quot;}__TCB_FORM__\"><div class=\"tve-page-section-out\"><\/div><div class=\"tve-page-section-in tve_empty_dropzone  \" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e471\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_contentbox_shortcode thrv-content-box tve-elem-default-pad\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e403\"><div class=\"tve-content-box-background\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e404\"><\/div><div class=\"tve-cb\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e405\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv-columns\" style=\"--tcb-col-el-width: 668.5;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e406\"><div class=\"tcb-flex-row v-2 tcb-resized tcb--cols--2\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e407\" style=\"\"><div class=\"tcb-flex-col\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e408\" style=\"\"><div class=\"tcb-col\" style=\"\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_contentbox_shortcode thrv-content-box tve-elem-default-pad\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e409\" style=\"\"><div class=\"tve-content-box-background\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e40a\"><\/div><div class=\"tve-cb\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e40b\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e40c\"><p class=\"tcb-global-text-\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e40d\" style=\"text-align: center;\">Tiff Macklem<\/p><\/div><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e40e\"><p class=\"tcb-global-text-\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e40f\" style=\"text-align: center;\">-Governor-<br>-Bank of Canada-<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"tcb-flex-col\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e410\" style=\"\"><div class=\"tcb-col\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965302e411\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element\"><em><span style=\"font-size: 18px !important; --tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5)  !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653033626\" class=\"\">A new crisis is on the horizon. If US tariffs play out as threatened, the economic impact would be severe.<\/span><\/em><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"thrive-group-edit-config\" style=\"display: none !important\">__CONFIG_group_edit__{}__CONFIG_group_edit__<\/div><div class=\"thrive-local-colors-config\" style=\"display: none !important\">__CONFIG_local_colors__{\"colors\":{},\"gradients\":{}}__CONFIG_local_colors__<\/div><\/div><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element\"><p data-end=\"2472\" data-start=\"2350\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530602a5\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)       !important; color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5)      !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530602a7\">This is part of why the Bank is treading cautiously, even as other pressures \u2014 like high housing costs \u2014 continue to grow.<\/span><\/p><p data-end=\"2472\" data-start=\"2350\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-1965305507c\" style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5)  !important;\"><\/span><br><\/p><h2 data-end=\"2517\" data-start=\"2479\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965305a705\" class=\"\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965305507e\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653055080\">4. The BoC Warned About Stagflation<\/span><\/span><\/h2><p data-end=\"2593\" data-start=\"2519\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653055081\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653055082\"><strong data-end=\"2534\" data-start=\"2519\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653061d6c\">Stagflation<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 18px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653061d6e\"> is when inflation stays high while the economy slows down.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p><p data-end=\"2856\" data-start=\"2595\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653061d70\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653055084\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653055085\">In a typical slowdown, the Bank of Canada would lower interest rates to stimulate growth. But if inflation remains elevated, lowering rates could make the problem worse. On the other hand, raising rates to fight inflation could further damage a slowing economy.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p><p data-end=\"2960\" data-start=\"2858\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530602bc\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530602be\">It\u2019s a lose-lose situation \u2014 and the Bank is now openly acknowledging that stagflation is a real risk.<\/span><\/span><\/p><p data-end=\"2960\" data-start=\"2858\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-19653055087\" style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-19653055088\" style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><\/span><\/span><br><\/p><h2 data-end=\"3014\" data-start=\"2967\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965305d69c\" class=\"\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965305508a\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965305508b\">5. Housing Affordability Remains a Challenge<\/span><\/span><\/h2><p data-end=\"3277\" data-start=\"3016\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965305508d\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965305508e\">Even with rate cuts over the past year, <strong data-end=\"3081\" data-start=\"3056\">housing affordability<\/strong> has not improved significantly for most Canadians. In some regions, home prices have come down modestly \u2014 especially in the condo market. But overall, homeownership remains out of reach for many.<\/span><\/span><\/p><p data-end=\"3439\" data-start=\"3279\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653063b27\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653055090\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653055091\">Wages have not kept up with the rising cost of housing, and although <strong data-end=\"3366\" data-start=\"3348\">mortgage rates<\/strong> have declined slightly, they are still high compared to the last decade.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p><p data-end=\"3555\" data-start=\"3441\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)    !important; color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653055092\">The chart below illustrates the growing disconnect between real house prices and real disposable income in Canada:<\/span><\/p><\/div><div class=\"thrv_wrapper tve_image_caption\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965306a3ca\" style=\"\"><span class=\"tve_image_frame\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"tve_image wp-image-1329\" alt=\"Line chart showing the gap between house prices and disposable income in Canada from 1975 to 2021, highlighting housing affordability challenges.\" data-id=\"1329\" width=\"564\" data-init-width=\"564\" height=\"423\" data-init-height=\"423\" title=\"housing-affordability-in-canada_ftr-image\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/ganhosegastos.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/housing-affordability-in-canada_ftr-image.webp\" data-width=\"564\" data-height=\"423\" style=\"aspect-ratio: auto 564 \/ 423;\"><\/span><\/div><div class=\"tcb-clear\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530709a9\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965306fd10\" style=\"\"><p data-end=\"3733\" data-start=\"3557\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965307b043\"><em><strong data-end=\"3678\" data-start=\"3668\">Source<\/strong>: Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy via National Post<\/em><\/p><p data-end=\"3814\" data-start=\"3735\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965307b045\"><em>Chart: Real House Prices vs. Real Disposable Income in Canada (Q1 1975 = 100)<\/em><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530cd83a\" style=\"\"><p data-end=\"4063\" data-start=\"3816\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)    !important; color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965308c5b7\">As shown above, disposable income (black line) has risen gradually since the mid-1970s \u2014 but real house prices (red line) have surged, especially after 2000. By 2021, home prices had increased more than fourfold, while income had not even doubled.<\/span><\/p><p data-end=\"4217\" data-start=\"4065\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653099283\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653099286\">This gap is central to the housing affordability crisis. Even with moderate rate relief, many Canadians still cannot afford to enter the housing market.<\/span><\/span><\/p><p data-end=\"4217\" data-start=\"4065\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-1965308c5b9\" style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-1965308c5bb\" style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\"><\/span><\/span><br><\/p><h2 data-end=\"4262\" data-start=\"4224\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-19653092013\" class=\"\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965308c5bd\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965308c5be\">6. Uncertainty Is the Central Theme<\/span><\/span><\/h2><p data-css=\"tve-u-19653094bbb\" data-end=\"4367\" data-start=\"4264\" style=\"\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965308c5c0\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965308c5c1\">The Bank of Canada repeated one word several times during its latest press conference: <strong data-end=\"4366\" data-start=\"4351\">uncertainty<\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><span data-css=\"tve-u-1965308c5c0\" style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-1965308c5c1\" style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\"><\/span><\/span><br><\/p><p data-end=\"4574\" data-start=\"4369\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965309928b\"><span style=\"color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965308c5c3\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5) !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965308c5c4\">Between trade tensions, unpredictable inflation trends, and an unclear future for rate policy, there\u2019s no guaranteed direction. That makes planning harder \u2014 whether you\u2019re looking to buy, renew, or invest.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p><p data-end=\"4603\" data-start=\"4576\"><span style=\"--tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)    !important; color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5)   !important; font-size: 18px !important;\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965308c5c6\">As Governor Macklem put it:<\/span><\/p><\/div><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv-page-section thrv-lp-block\" data-inherit-lp-settings=\"1\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5df5\" tcb-template-name=\"Quote 08\" tcb-template-id=\"5efc64cc62b8a83127787550\" data-keep-css_id=\"1\" data-form-settings=\"__TCB_FORM__{&quot;form_identifier&quot;:&quot;the-bank-of-canada-paused-rates-heres-what-that-could-mean-for-mortgage-rates-and-housing-affordability-form-89n1pj&quot;}__TCB_FORM__\"><div class=\"tve-page-section-out\"><\/div><div class=\"tve-page-section-in tve_empty_dropzone  \" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5e52\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_contentbox_shortcode thrv-content-box tve-elem-default-pad\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5df6\"><div class=\"tve-content-box-background\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5df7\"><\/div><div class=\"tve-cb\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5df8\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv-columns\" style=\"--tcb-col-el-width: 668.5;\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5df9\"><div class=\"tcb-flex-row v-2 tcb-resized tcb--cols--2\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5dfa\" style=\"\"><div class=\"tcb-flex-col\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5dfb\" style=\"\"><div class=\"tcb-col\" style=\"\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_contentbox_shortcode thrv-content-box tve-elem-default-pad\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5dfc\" style=\"\"><div class=\"tve-content-box-background\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5dfd\"><\/div><div class=\"tve-cb\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5dfe\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5dff\"><p class=\"tcb-global-text-\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5e00\" style=\"text-align: center;\">Tiff Macklem<\/p><\/div><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5e01\"><p class=\"tcb-global-text-\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5e02\" style=\"text-align: center; font-size: 10px !important;\">-Governor-<br>-Bank of Canada-<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"tcb-flex-col\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5e03\" style=\"\"><div class=\"tcb-col\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530a5e04\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-1965314e1b6\" style=\"\" class=\"\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-196530bd36d\" style=\"\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-196530bd36f\" style=\"\"><em data-end=\"4707\" data-start=\"4607\">I think giving Canadians a false sense of precision would not be doing Canadians a good service.<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"thrive-group-edit-config\" style=\"display: none !important\">__CONFIG_group_edit__{}__CONFIG_group_edit__<\/div><div class=\"thrive-local-colors-config\" style=\"display: none !important\">__CONFIG_local_colors__{\"colors\":{},\"gradients\":{}}__CONFIG_local_colors__<\/div><\/div><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element\" data-css=\"tve-u-1965143e20a\" style=\"\"><p data-end=\"4847\" data-start=\"4709\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-1965107300a\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-1965107243d\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-19651072442\">This reflects the tone of the Bank\u2019s current messaging: they\u2019re cautious, non-committal, and highly aware of the complex challenges ahead.<\/span><\/span><\/span><br><span data-css=\"tve-u-1965107300a\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-1965107243d\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-19651072442\"><\/span><\/span><\/span><span data-css=\"tve-u-19651073018\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-19651072447\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-1965107244b\"><br><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p><h2 data-end=\"4873\" data-start=\"4854\" class=\"\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-196530c61e4\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-19651073024\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-19651072450\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-19651072454\">Why This Matters<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h2><p data-end=\"5146\" data-start=\"4875\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-19651073031\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-1965107245a\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-1965107245f\">We don\u2019t yet know where interest rates or home prices are going. But understanding how decisions from the <strong data-end=\"4999\" data-start=\"4981\">Bank of Canada<\/strong> affect <strong data-end=\"5025\" data-start=\"5007\">mortgage rates<\/strong> and <strong data-end=\"5055\" data-start=\"5030\">housing affordability<\/strong> helps Canadians make better sense of what\u2019s happening now \u2014 and what could be coming next.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p><p data-end=\"5273\" data-start=\"5148\"><span data-css=\"tve-u-19651072463\">The BoC isn\u2019t making promises. In fact, it\u2019s being very careful not to. That alone says a lot about the uncertainty we\u2019re in.<\/span><\/p><\/div>","tve_custom_css":"@media (min-width: 300px){[data-css=\"tve-u-1964de63d61\"] { padding: 0px !important; }.tcb-post-list[data-css=\"tve-u-1964ef8b98d\"] .post-wrapper.thrv_wrapper { width: calc(100% - 0px); }.tcb-post-list[data-css=\"tve-u-1964ef8b98d\"] .post-wrapper.thrv_wrapper:nth-child(n+2) { margin-top: 15px !important; }.tcb-post-list[data-css=\"tve-u-1964ef8b98d\"] .post-wrapper.thrv_wrapper:not(:nth-child(n+2)) { margin-top: 0px !important; }.tcb-post-list[data-css=\"tve-u-1964ef8b98d\"] .post-wrapper.thrv_wrapper:not(:nth-child(n)) { margin-right: 15px !important; }.tcb-post-list[data-css=\"tve-u-1964ef8b98d\"] .post-wrapper.thrv_wrapper:nth-child(n) { margin-right: 0px !important; }:not(#tve) [data-css=\"tve-u-1965105a53a\"] { color: var(--tcb-skin-color-5)  !important; --tcb-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)  !important; --tve-applied-color: var$(--tcb-skin-color-5)  !important; font-size: 18px !important; 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